Weekly Crop Commentary - 08/01/2025

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. Welcome to August, everyone. The grain markets took a beating this week. November soybean futures have lost 20+ cents on the week. Better crop conditions and a lack of export demand seem to be the catalyst for the lower move. Our sales of new crop beans for this time of year are the lowest they have been in the last five years. The southern US crops look great, and the early harvested bushels are coming in better than previous estimates. The ongoing tariff issues also continue to hamper business. Currently, there is just no news to change the market’s mindset. We still have some growing season to go, but we are quickly running out of time for weather to be an issue.

Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing

Grain markets remain under pressure this week, with corn, soybeans, and wheat all struggling to find bullish momentum. December ’25 corn (CZ25) continues to grind lower, sitting just above mid-July’s low at 4.075 and firmly below the 20-day moving average. Despite some fresh export sales in corn this week, bearish sentiment prevails as the market digests favorable U.S. growing conditions and crop ratings above five-year averages. South American supply pressure continues, with Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest at 68% and Argentina’s corn at 88% complete. Additionally, Argentina’s recent reduction in export taxes—from 12% to 9.5% for corn and 33% to 26% for soybeans—adds further downward pressure. Soybeans (SX25) are in a similar boat as they gapped lower Sunday into Monday and are now sitting in oversold territory. Between the lack of bullish headlines and the fact that we’re into August already, if you’re behind on your new crop marketing, you might consider utilizing a Price Plus contract to capture some above-the-market premium. If you want to learn more, don’t hesitate to contact your local merchandiser.

On the tariff front, President Trump’s newly announced tariffs are set to take effect on August 7th for many. Tariffs range from 10% to as high as 50% on Brazil, with notable jumps on Canada (35%) and India (25%). Fortunately, USMCA goods are exempt, and negotiations continue with several nations. Cooler temperatures are a welcome break—I wish you all a great weekend!

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

It is officially August, and it feels like fall outside, but I am loving it. This cooler weather is sticking around for a week or so, but then it will start to feel like summer again—typical Ohio weather.

Corn conditions dropped 1 point to 73% good/excellent, and soybeans rose 2 points to 70% good/excellent this week.

The market trend has been low and negative. I know that it is hard to stay positive about markets when ideal weather keeps prices from rebounding. Even with some trade deals, including agricultural commodities and increased export demand, the markets are still solely focused on the weather. We do have some contract options that could net some additional gains. Reach out to your regional merchandisers to go over your options!

Zach Dennis
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

Happy Friday! It’s been a wet and rough week for the markets. Several factors are leading to the price decline: large global harvests, weather, and demand. In Brazil, the corn crop is projected to be nearly record-breaking, which is leading to an oversupply in the marketplace, with low demand.

The crops in the Midwest and the Southern part of the US have high expectations, as we have seen good growing conditions locally and throughout the corn belt. This week, we saw that the EU and the United States have reached a trade deal, but the big one we are still waiting for is with China. The demand for US soybeans in China has been slow to nonexistent. Hopefully, with a trade deal, there will be some type of soybean demand.

Hope everyone has a great weekend.

Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)

Corn lost a couple of cents, though it feels a bit heavier than that. Early yield reports out of Georgia and Texas are showing well above average, which adds some pressure. One developing concern to remember: we’re hearing reports from across the Corn Belt of tight husks around tassels, which may be limiting pollination. It’s still too early to know what impact that could have on yields, but it’s something worth watching closely.

Soybeans saw the most movement this week, dropping over 30 cents. Weak export demand, a strong-looking crop, and plenty of old crop supplies played a role. We also saw some softening in basis throughout the week, as processors seem confident there’s enough stock to carry through harvest. If you’re still holding beans — old or new crop — it might be a good time to consider a basis contract to protect against further basis losses.

Best of luck to all the exhibitors at the Champaign County Fair! Have a great weekend.

Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)

It’s hard to believe we’ve flipped the calendar to August!

The grain markets gave us little to celebrate this week. Corn, beans, and wheat all posted losses across the board, except for a few-cent gain on beans midday today. With trade uncertainty, favorable growing conditions, and a lack of bullish news, there was not much to trigger positive moves in the market this week.

This week, President Trump signed trade deals with more countries, including India, Brazil, and Taiwan. Although Mexico was granted another 90 days to reach an agreement, Canada’s tariff rate rose to 35%, and there has not yet been an agreement reached with China.

The temperature has cooled off here at the end of this week. It looks like it will be an enjoyable weekend to be outside. Be sure to set some targets so you can capture a win if we do see a short-term rally. Even a small gain could be worth locking in as we get closer to harvest.